The short answer: a lot of teams.
Nine of the world's top 10 women's teams are in Paris, creating a wide-open field that should lend itself to chaos. Add in the format changes and we could be in for an absolutely wild tournament on both sides. Here is a detailed look at how each pool could shake out, starting with the women.
Pool A
As mentioned earlier, Team USA finds itself in Group A alongside France, China and Serbia. The French women are making their first-ever Olympic appearance as the host nation and enter the Games ranked 19th in the world, so a trip to the knockout phase would come as quite a shock.
No. 6-ranked China and No. 9-ranked Serbia will pose stiff tests for the Americans in pool play and could easily cause them some early trouble. China is a three-time Olympic champion and will be looking for redemption after crashing out of pool play in Tokyo, while Serbia has medaled in the last two Olympics and is the two-time defending world champion.
Team USA should top its group, but will have to be careful. With two teams as good as China and Serbia in their group, they could easily find themselves crashing out in pool play if they are not up for the task right from the jump.
The Americans face China in their first match on Monday, July 29, with France and Serbia getting their games started against each other a few hours thereafter.
Pool B
Pool B features three of the top seven teams in the world, including five-time medalist Brazil, who looks a real threat to secure its third-ever Olympic gold. The Brazilians will certainly have their eyes on the Americans after falling to them in the gold-medal match in Tokyo. They have medaled in five of their last seven Olympic appearances and have advanced out of their pool in every appearance they have made since 1980.
Poland is making its second Olympic appearance (Beijing 2008) since winning bronze in the first two women's volleyball tournaments, in 1964 and '68. They took out Brazil in the third-place match of the Volleyball Nations League and at No. 4 in the world are contenders for a medal, though they will have some tough competition in their way. They will likely be battling Japan for the second automatic qualifying spot in Pool B, and the match between the two countries will be absolutely critical.
Entering the games, Japan is ranked seventh in the world and poses a stiff challenge. They defeated the Brazilians in the semifinals of the Volleyball Nations League this year, setting up a repeat match on the second matchday of the tournament. Still, their second-place finish at the VNL was a surprise, and they will likely need to be one of the two-best third-place teams to advance.
Kenya got a brutal draw by filling out the group, as the country has only won two of 47 sets in its Olympic history.
With revenge on its mind against Japan and looking to take back Olympic gold later in the tournament, it is hard to pick against Brazil to come out of this group. The fight for second place between Poland and Japan will be a good one, with both teams having to keep one eye on the rest of the tournament in hopes of advancing.
Pool C
Top-ranked Italy is seeking its first-ever medal in women's volleyball at an Olympic Games. The Italians did not take the easy way into the tournament despite being the world No. 1, failing to qualify at last year's Olympic Qualification tournament and getting in off their world ranking. At this year's Volleyball Nations League, they took out the United States, Poland and Japan in route to a first-place finish.
The Italians are joined in Pool C by third-ranked Turkiye, who won the 2023 Volleyball Nations League and won all seven of its qualifying matches, including taking out the reigning Olympic silver medalist, Brazil, in straight sets. This is only Turkiye's third Olympic appearance but it looks to be a real threat not just to take home its first medal, but to have that medal be gold.
The eighth-ranked Netherlands is no slouch, though it will likely need to grab one of the two third-place spots to find its way through to the knockout rounds. Even then, it could take some chaos for the Dutch to find themselves as one of the two-best third-place teams.
The Dominican Republic topped its pool in the Olympic Qualification Tournament to find its way into the 2024 Paris Olympics and finds itself ranked No. 11 in the world. An advancement would be very surprising, but there will be no easy matches in Pool C.
Italy and Turiyke should find its way through in this group comfortably, but they cannot take any match lightly.
